What is the birth dearth worth?

The latest provisional birth data is out and the results are an ongoing decline in total births at all but the oldest ages (mostly 40+, which is barely any of the total babies).

I have no idea when I can get around to it in more detail but Gen X (my “generation”) beat the spread and had more babies than their initial TFR predicted, which is pretty interesting.  Also cohort analysis shows some specific cohorts within Gen X and older-Millennial are having more higher-order births (3, 4, 5th, etc) than  their fellow cohort-sisters.

So on the one hand a few small groups that someone eventually should look at more closely are having more children than expected.  On the other hand, the big-picture of fertility is ongoing declines in baby-having at every stage of fertile-life.

So what is this ongoing decline in new life worth?  What is it worth to the ever-shrinking  pool of married parents?  And what’s making a handful of people double down and have marginal additional children at all?

 

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