Back to the lion’s den.

We’ve had some crazy ups and downs living an agrarian life, but now we’re going back to leafy, 75-97% white suburbia.  Yes, the rest is “mixed race” and “Asian”, depending on the suburb.

The full transition (sale, buy, move) probably won’t happen until the next calendar year, but it means a chance to keep everyone healthy (because buh-bye rural commute and rural mom commute, both completely health decimating), leisure time for the parents and unstructured play time for the kids, and just more opportunities for organic social life because it’ll be a lot more people even though we still get to have “acreage”.

We both had a view of rural life that was covered in nostalgia and we’re a lot more clear eyed now.  So another journey in our life together begins.


The Lazy, stupid, evil–pick two phenomenon

This is where someone looks around at everyone behaving a certain way or doing certain things and decides that they’re two of lazy, stupid or evil.

Common examples are the way liberals tend to assume this of any conservative policy or the way that conservatives tend to assume this of SAHMs with dirty houses and/or kids.

There’s not really a political divide here, it’s common across the political spectrum.  It’s just a recurring tendency that people slip into.

I guess you could also call it Chesterton’s busted fence.

Small update on the black demographic transition

I am not going on a quest for my binder full of (black) women birth statistics right now, but about 10% of black births in recent years are multiracial (that is, black is one of the races listed, but not the only one).  So they’ve started breaking that out and putting it in the “black” birth total.  But since this is births from black moms, this is also a measure of interracial marriage and birth for black women.  Anyway, that number is currently something like 55/45 or 60/40 wed/unwed.  It’s also getting close to parity with black men fathering children interracially. Interracial birth is converging more rapidly than overall interracial marriage among black men and black women because married black women have more children with nonblack husbands.

And foreign-born black moms represent 1 in 6 black births these days and are on track to represent 1 in 5 by as early as 2018.

I was going to add more, but I can’t remember it right now since I’m also trying to supervise cleanup (“I don’t know who did it!”) of a mysterious cucumber soda spill.


Native black Americans have become like Native Americans.

A back of the old envelope shows that once you’ve accounted for first generation foreign-born mothers and mothers who had children with non-black fathers and label them black, from the maternal side at least, married non-Hispanic black birth is about 50-60% native-born.  This means that the 80%+ unwed numbers I’ve seen thrown around in some black parts of the interwebs have some anchor in reality.  That is in fact pretty close to the native-black unmarried birth percentage.   Immigrants have a 40% out of wedlock birth rate, which necessarily means the non-immigrant out of wedlock birth rate must be higher than 70%.  Hispanic black birth is 65% or so unmarried, and so doesn’t shift the native rate that much.

Without the substantial and parallel increases in outmarriage and immigration keeping births relatively stable year to year, the native-born black TFR is somewhere down in the dumps like the Native American one, about 1.4 or 1.5.

This explains a lot.

The black teen pregnancy rate dropped nearly 50% in 5 years.

In 2010 it was just over 15% of all (non-Hispanic) black births. By 2015, the most recent complete data available, it was 8.6%.

There are several reasons this could be the case. It could be people leaving high-crime urban areas, which are where the bulk of black teen pregnancy is concentrated. It could be part of the increase in older, more educated foreign-born and second-generation non-Hispanic black immigrant mothers making up a bigger share of black births. It could be both, or some other factors. It’s not an increase in abortions, though.

For perspective, here’s a chart with rough estimates since 1970 and percent changes.

% teen pregnancy % change
1970 31 N/A
1975 33 2
1980 26.5 -6.5
1985 23 -3
1990 23 0
1995 23 0
2000 21.5 -1.5
2005 17 -4.5
2010 15.2 -1.8
2015 8.6 -6.6

The 1970s were pretty bad, as were the 1980s, but the last decade has seen a significant and major turnaround in teen pregnancy.  Teen pregnancy for black Americans specifically is particularly “bad” because it’s skewed unmarried for much longer than was the case with white teen pregnancies, starting with under 15 pregnancies being mostly unmarried ones in the 1950s when that wasn’t the case with white pregnancies under 15.  In 1966, not long after the famous Moynihan Report, black teen pregnancies to mothers aged 15-19 crossed 50% unmarried.

Through the 1960s and 1970s, teen pregnancy became completely decoupled from marriage for black teen mothers and heavily decoupled for black mothers in their early 20s, culminating in 1978.  Five years after Roe V. Wade, black births to mothers in their early 20s were now majority unwed and teen births were 80-97% unwed, depending on age.  However, teen births were only about 25% of total births, during the 1960s.  The table shows how things shifted after the collapse in married black motherhood during the 1970s and 1980s.

All birth data used for rough percentages comes from Monthly Vital Statistics Reports or National Vital Statistics Reports.