There are twice as many noncollege tech employed parents as there are doctor parents.

Because both groups have parents on the older side, both groups are also concentrated in the top half of married parents.

 

By 2025 a majority of all doctorates are projected to go to people under 30.

This is part of a larger ongoing battle between the desire of some college educated types to extend education further and further into the 20s and 30s and the desire of different college educated people to speedrun the system in order to enter the workforce and start making enough to have a family relatively quickly.  It’s more of a culture clash than a clash of the sexes (though there are some sex-linked aspects).

But it’s also in a strange way a return to pre-1970s standards, where time to PhD completion was a few years rather than a decade.  That increase in time happened during the 90s and has been sliding downwards back towards those older historical norms of around half a decade, driven mostly by the increase in STEM PhDs, which were frequently majority under-30 even back during the 90s and early 2000s.

In any case we’ve gone from perhaps 1 in 200 PhDs being awarded  to someone under 25 to about 1 in 100 (source: NSF) in the course of the last decade (closer to 1 in 50 with STEM).  And the shift is away from PhDs being awarded in the middle 30s and also away from midcareer late 40s PhDs (dominated by education majors).  And yes, without education majors getting those midcareer PhDs we would very likely already be seeing a bigger percentage of PhDs awarded to the youth because STEM PhDs are getting younger more swiftly than the other PhD categories and are taking up a hefty share of the total.

And among under 25s being awarded a PhD, everyone is pretty much the same.  There’s no conventional race gap among the different large-enough for reporting racial groups getting PhDs under age 25.

Anyhow, the long and short is that PhDs are taking less and less time to get, it’s not clear if we’ll keep seeing increases in the overall number (there’s been a lot of flattening out) and there’s definitely another subculture forming of extremely young but highly credentialed types, similar to what we got during the 1990s and 1970s.  History sometimes skips like a scratched CD.

Median married family income in 1970 with and without wife working.

This includes married couples without children and even back then that means this understates married *parent* family incomes.

Husband earning, wife not in workforce: ~75k in 2019 dollars.

Husband and wife both in workforce: ~90k in 2019 dollars.

 

This is for full-time year round employment, the median for married families in general in 1970  regardless of employment status was ~80k in 2019 dollars.

 

Quick notes on the value of a village and the value of a housewife.

The value of the village, of real community support where you can easily have someone come over is 100k per year.

The articles from years and years back about how a housewife’s labor is worth 250k a year missed the real implication, which is that the *husband* would need to make that much to cover all the value-adds this platonic-ideal housewife was providing.    But then, that is dangerously close to the actual situation with SAHMing in many married households.

Related to something else, instead of the poor choices of long commutes or telecommutopia or “no really if we keep spending billions on light rail everyone will take it to their green jobs”, we could have satellite offices for many desk-type jobs and make the 400k vice presidents actually earn that money making the rounds weekly or monthly to touch base.  It “splits the difference” with commuting by slashing it in many industries but also keeps local money more local because a lot of the “oh they’ll just buy everything with amazon” is from being exhausted from hours of driving. Cut that by 75% and you can have real stores and get better quality even without major price increase, since there’s been a race to the bottom with shipping costs and delivery of consumer goods.

Ultimately tens of millions of people are being shoved around by the whims of a few hundred thousand, and that is changeable.  Extremely so.

 

The proletarization of the professional class.

We all proles now, as I’ve noted even among the elite class.  The conversion of the professional classes into a big old heap of wage-dependent salary serfs has been rapid, quite successful and the amazing part is that they don’t appear to have a problem with it for all their lengthy educations and presumed intelligence.

The professional class used to be a fairly heavily self-employed class, with the very mixed political and social views that a decently sized, moderately wealthy middle class would produce.

Now these professionals are salary dependent, and further, they have very little control over their salaries.  Working more doesn’t necessarily get you more money or a profit share or a stock bonus or a promotion.  It frequently just keeps you from being fired this year, same as a factory worker not in the union.  The independence of this class has been methodically stripped away in the last few decades, and every step of the way they were convinced that one more degree, or one more “skillset” would protect them, even as it never did.

Boomers denied Gen X help and Gen X is shelling out on Millennials.

This is a note to self post to put up the relevant files when I have some actual free time, but it appears that the narrative around Boomers coddling Millennial children isn’t necessarily so.  It appears to mostly be older Gen Xers and not that many younger Boomers paying 20something rents and bills and backstopping their kids financially into advanced ages.  Boomers (and Silents) heavily and overtly didn’t support the oldest Gen Xers and the very youngest Boomers.

So now the cohorts that didn’t get much support and did work and school together now pay their kids to not work and focus only on school, which under current trends isn’t adding up to stronger earnings patterns or career trajectories, as would have been predicted by models around education completion.