Where the babies are, 2014

Heat map of where 4th and higher births are by county for all races.  National average is 12.4% of all births.

Fourth and higher births

Here’s just non-Hispanic whites.  Their national average is 10.2%.

Fourth and higher order births, whites only

The hottest counties have 24-27% of births (all races) and 31-35% of births (white only) as kid #4 or more.

Open for discussion.

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15 thoughts on “Where the babies are, 2014”

    1. Only a little. Only Idaho and Utah pop as people might expect, but the other significantly Mormon states do not. The real story to me is that the Midwest is merely at the national average, and that both the white and black South are not nearly as fecund as people think. A fourth child really does “make people feel weird” enough to not be happening as often as is frequently portrayed in various conservative media.

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      1. Yes! This is true. I can’t count the number of times I have had to correct some online commentator about the birth rate of black women; single women in particular but also black women as a whole. It’s been well over two decades since poor women of any race were breeding at higher than replacement levels.

        Also (and our educational/social circle is populated with a demographic (religious) of people who are generally fecund and even among that group, 6 is usually a max number with 4-5 being the average.

        If the family has special needs kids (autism and the like which is also represented in a fairly high percentage) you rarely see more than 2-3 kids. And that’s among religious homeschoolers in a moderate cost of living state, so…

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      2. TPC said:

        ” The real story to me is that the Midwest is merely at the national average, and that both the white and black South are not nearly as fecund as people think.”

        Yeah, that did jump out at me, too–the whole SE (including TX) is very light. FL is somehow exceptional. I wonder if a whole lotta Floridians are deeming themselves white, rather than Hispanic white.

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            1. It is effectively so, I didn’t mean that people moved there for that reason. It’s just interesting that it ends up that way. Ocean County, NJ, that may be something where people planned to move just to have four or more (Catholic) kids, I am not sure. It’s the little blazing spot in the NE, underneath the Hasidic Jews of NY.

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      3. TPC said:

        “A fourth child really does “make people feel weird” enough to not be happening as often as is frequently portrayed in various conservative media.”

        Having two kids in elementary/middle school is very taxing in terms of keeping up with paperwork, homework, emails, etc. I’ve seen working parents online virtually melting down over the burden of keeping a middle school kid academically afloat.

        As I’ve said before, I feel like contemporary school demands on families are calibrated to the 2 child family.

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        1. Yeah, there is a lot of busywork now that wasn’t around even 20 years ago to train the parents. Parents who are willing and able to put up with it and thus are more likely to have kids who do well enough and don’t cause trouble are what even private schools want moar, moar, moar of.

          But doing all that with 3-4 kids is deranging.

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          1. TPC said:

            “Yeah, there is a lot of busywork now that wasn’t around even 20 years ago to train the parents. Parents who are willing and able to put up with it and thus are more likely to have kids who do well enough and don’t cause trouble are what even private schools want moar, moar, moar of. But doing all that with 3-4 kids is deranging.”

            I was at or beyond my limits with two elementary kids in private school and a toddler (and my husband has always done a lot with the kids’ school projects–so it wasn’t just me). However, now that we have a high schooler and a middle schooler in private school and a preschooler, the big kids are mostly able to operate pretty independently with minimal parental herding and barking. We still have paperwork, uniforms, and school emails to keep track of, but the kids stay on top of their own academic work. It’s taken a while to get here, though.

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            1. There’s basically no more “fire and forget” up to the elementary level, was what I meant. It used to be that for the complaining about schools as daycares, parents just didn’t have to do much of anything until middle school band or sports.

              This may be why the local Christian schools tend to offer free tuition once you have more than four in there.

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  1. I wonder if a whole lotta Floridians are deeming themselves white, rather than Hispanic white.

    I’d be VERY surprised at that. People down here take great pride in being “Puerto Rican, Cuban, Dominican, Mexican, etc.

    I will say this though. Our kids (from elementary up until now that they are in their early 20s) have had a fair number of MC/UMC Hispanic -for generality’s sake- kids as friends. I can only think of ONE of those families who had more than 2 kids. The other had 3, and the mother had been married twice. One with the first husband, 2 with the second.

    People just aren’t having a lot of kids anymore.

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